Saturday, August 29, 2009

Introduction

From my entry into the post-college job market in 1991, I listened to those that desired to guide me with financial advice. For many years, the buy and hold, dollar cost averaging, can't time the market proponents brain-washed me into their cult of financial negligence. Of course, it worked up until the bear market of 2001 through 2003. And like the lemmings, I rode the market all the way up and all the way down. And like the investor driven by fear and greed, I sold at the bottom and missed the market from March, 2003 onward.

But that time was not all bad. I tuned in to the world of money and investing. Instead of believing the charlatans, I began thinking for myself, finding out what was real, what was imagined, what they wanted me to believe and why they wanted me to believe it. I found that there was no substitute for the responsibility for my money and investments.

Along this journey, there were many detours, many myths, many provisional truths, many lessons learned, money gained and money lost. My hope is that I can share my path so that others can learn from my experience and also add to my financial education.

Anyone that knows me, knows that charts and graphs are my life-blood. So, I will begin by the most devastating chart to the financial establishment (source):














After viewing this chart, a few fundamental observations:

1) A strategy of buy and hold does not work in a 30-year time period, which is a vast period of any investor's life. The purveyors of such a strategy are negligent, at best, vicious at worst.
2) If one cannot identify times of extreme and, conversely, low risk, then you will likely be the victim of random timing.
3) Responsibility to manage observations #1 and #2 reside with the individual.

In other words, wake up and realize that timing is everything in life. Luck plays a part, but recognizing personal financial responsibility is the only true path. Join me, we will walk together.

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